'COUP SEEMS ALMOST INEVITABLE"

A sobering report on one possible scenario for Thailand from Global Insight, a company that provides analysis for many companies and organisations. This was issued earlier this morning after the cessation of the PAD protests.

"To all intents and purposes, Thailand does not have a functioning government. The risk of civil unrest is growing, and with it, the accompanying risk of military intervention. The heightened possibility of a coup is reflected in the downgrading of Thailand’s political risk rating, from 3 to 3.25. If the parliament does indeed elect a prime minister the PAD does not approve of, the same cycle of protests and deadlock will start again. In that case, a military coup seems almost inevitable, particularly as civilian-military relations remain extremely weak. In any case, it appears increasingly likely that the elite will win out over the rural majority."

So while many in Thailand are breathing a huge sigh of relief, the protests of the last week may just be the first chapter in what could turn into an epic.